Labor Market Predicto

July 6, 2022, Fairfax, Va.–Americans for Limited Government President Rick Manning today issued the following statement in anticipation of the latest jobs figures to be released on July 8:

“I predict that the June jobs report that comes out this upcoming Friday, July 8, will signal the beginning of the end of the jobs boom.  This won’t likely show up through a massive uptick in the unemployment rate, but rather by a continued downward trend on hours worked by the average worker with perhaps a slight increase in the unemployment rate.

“The news is providing scattered reports that job offers are being rescinded, and some prominent companies, like Tesla, are beginning the layoff process. The new unemployment insurance claims report remains in what would traditionally be described as low, it is troublesome that claims have crept up steadily and significantly over the past three months in almost stealth increases.

“Independent economic analysis by Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow is predicting that our economy is likely currently in a recession, and employers feeling the combined pinch of anticipated sky-high labor cost increases due to inflation and uncertain economic times ahead, will likely be shifting labor resources to pay the most productive employees and shed those who contribute least to the bottom line.  This is the natural course of business, and I expect the upcoming June unemployment report to reflect the beginning of this cycle.”

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